Mu mwaka wa 2024, Perezida Donald Trump yihanangirije Abanyamerika ko gutora Visi Perezida Kamala Harris bizateza ihungabana rikomeye ku isoko ry’imigabane.
“Icyo ushaka ni ukureba isoko rigwa ku buryo bukabije? Nitwatsindwa aya matora, ntekereza ko isoko rizahita risenyuka,” Trump yabibwiye imbaga y’abamushyigikiye mu gihugu cya Pennsylvania mu mpera z’ukwezi kwa cumi.
Mu byumweru byari byabanjirije icyo gihe, Trump yari yaratangaje yizeye ko “natsindwa, bizateza ihungabana rikomeye ry’ubukungu, rimeze nk’iryo mu 1929.”
Trump yaje gutsinda amatora, ariko bisa n’aho yari afite ukuri ku by’ihungabana ryakurikiye.
Ibiciro by’imigabane byari biri hejuru ubwo Trump yinjiraga muri White House, ariko ubu biri hafi kugwa ku muvuduko utarabaho ku wundi muperezida uwo ari we wese mu mateka aheruka. Nibiramuka bifunze mu cyiciro cyitwa bear market – bivuze kugwa ku kigero cya 20% ugereranyije n’aho byari bigeze hejuru vuba aha – bizaba ari bwo bwa mbere mu mateka ya S&P 500 (itangira gukurikirana ibiciro kuva mu 1957) ubukungu bwinjiye muri iki cyiciro hakiri kare muri manda nshya ya perezida.
Ibyo bitwaro by’ubucuruzi (tariffs) Trump yashyizeho bishobora no guhindura ubukungu bwari buhagaze neza, bukinjira mu gihe cy’ihungabana.
Kuva ku munsi w’irahira rye, S&P 500 yari imaze kugwa ku gipimo cya 15% kugeza ku cyumweru nimugoroba. Ibyo ntibinabarirwamo igihombo kinini cyari cyitezwe kuri uwo wa mbere mu gitondo.
Perezida wenyine wagize igihombo cyihuse nk’icyo ni George W. Bush mu 2001. Uwakurikiyeho ni Carter mu ntangiriro za 1977, aho isoko ryari ryagabanutse munsi ya 6%, kugira ngo tubone urugero rw’uburemere bw’ibi biri kuba ubu.
Isoko ryahombye cyane nyuma y’ “Umunsi wo Kurekurwa” (Liberation Day) wa Trump, aho yatangaje ku buryo butunguranye ko agiye kongera imisoro ku bicuruzwa bitumizwa hanze ku kigero cyitarigeze kibaho. Kuva uwo munsi w’itangazo, bibarwa ko bibiri kuri bitatu by’igihombo cya 15% byatewe n’icyo cyemezo.
“Umunsi wo Kurekurwa wakurikiwe n’iminsi yo Kurimbuka ku isoko ry’imigabane,” Ed Yardeni wo muri Yardeni Research yandikiye abakiriya be ku cyumweru.
Ubukana bw’amasoko y’imigabane mu minsi ibiri ishize bwarenzwe gusa n’ihungabana ryo mu 1987, irya 2008 n’irya Covid-19 mu 2020.
Ariko si ugwa kw’isoko gusa bitangaje. Ibyabaye mbere yaho nabyo byatandukanye cyane.
Bush yinjiye ku butegetsi isoko ry’imigabane riri mu manuka, ryatewe no gusenyuka kw’ikirere cy’ubucuruzi bwifashishaga ikoranabuhanga (dot-com bubble), aho S&P 500 yagabanutse 10% mu 2000. Kub blame-a Bush byari bigoye.
Ariko Trump we yasimbuye ubutegetsi bwari buri mu bihe byiza. S&P 500 yari yarazamutse 23% mu 2024.
Kubwira ko Trump ari we ntandaro y’iri gabanuka ntabwo bigoranye, cyane ko byabaye cyane kuva ku “Liberation Day.”
Tugomba kumenya ko kugabanuka kwa 15% mu S&P 500 bitaragera ku rugero rwemewe nk’isoko riri mu cyiciro cya bear market, kuko risaba kugabanuka 20% ugereranyije n’aho ryigeze hejuru. Ariko Nasdaq yo yarigeze kuri urwo rwego kuwa gatanu, bwa mbere kuva mu 2022. Russell 2000 nayo iri mu cyiciro cya bear market.
Hari ikibazo gikomeye: Ese ibyo biba ku isoko ry’imigabane bigira ingaruka ku bukungu muri rusange?
Igisubizo kiri hagati ya “yego” na “bishoboka cyane.”
Nubwo bamwe mu bayobozi ba Trump bavuga ko bagamije gufasha abaturage bo hasi (Main Street) nubwo byagira ingaruka ku bikorera banini (Wall Street), si ibintu byoroshye kubitandukanya.
Si nka kera mu myaka ya 1970 aho abaturage bari munsi ya 25% aribo bagiraga uruhare mu isoko ry’imigabane. Ubu hariho konti za IRA na 401(k) zituma benshi bagira imigabane. Mu 2024, abagera kuri 60% by’Abanyamerika bari bafite uruhare mu isoko, nk’uko ubushakashatsi bwa Gallup bubigaragaza.
Yardeni yagize ati: “Wall Street ni Main Street. Izo nzira zombi zizamuka cyangwa zigwa hamwe… abaturage bafite imigabane myinshi mu bigo by’Abanyamerika biri guhura n’ihungabana rikomeye kubera ibyo Trump yise ‘Tariffs 2.0.’”
Ikindi, David Kotok, washinze Cumberland Advisors, yavuze ko izo misoro nshya zizatera nk’ihungabana rikomeye ry’ubushobozi bwo kubona ibicuruzwa, nk’iryo mu 1973-74 ubwo intambara ya Yom Kippur yazamuye igiciro cy’amavuta.
“Izo tariffs za Trump ni nk’umusoro munini cyane ushyizwe ku baturage nk’uko byamera kuri TVA,” Kotok yagize ati. “Kugabanuka kw’ibicuruzwa bivuze kuzamuka kw’ibiciro no kugabanuka k’ubukungu – ibintu bikomerera cyane Banki Nkuru.”
Nta buryo bumwe bwemewe ku buryo bw’ihungabana ry’ubukungu, ariko ibimenyetso bihari ni byinshi: JPMorgan yazamuye amahirwe y’uko iryo hungabana rizaba ikigereranyo kigera kuri 60% (yavuye kuri 40%). Goldman Sachs yazamuye icyizere cyaryo iva kuri 20% igera kuri 45%. HSBC yo ivuga ko amahirwe ari 40%.
Turacyategereje niba National Bureau of Economic Research izatangaza iryo hungabana mbere y’uko uyu mwaka urangira. Bifashisha ibipimo byinshi mu kubyemeza.
Ikindi gisobanuro cy’ihungabana ni uko ubukungu buba bwaragabanutse mu bihembwe bibiri bikurikirana. Ubu hari ibimenyetso ko GDP nyakuri ishobora kugwa munsi ya zeru mu gihembwe cya mbere, cyangwa ikaguma hafi aho.
Igihe giheruka GDP igabanuka mu bihembwe bibiri bikurikiranye mu mwaka wa mbere w’ubutegetsi bushya, nyuma y’umwaka utarimo ihungabana? Byabaye mu 1953, ubwo Amerika yavaga mu ntambara yo muri Koreya.
Intambara Trump yakwifashisha mu bisobanuro by’ihungabana ry’ubukungu? Ni intambara y’ubucuruzi yatangije ubwe.
Ibi byose bishobora guteza umuzenguruko mubi. Nibiba ngombwa ko isoko ryemera ko ihungabana rije, imigabane izagwa kurushaho. Ikigo RBC Capital Markets kivuga ko igihombo gisanzwe cya S&P 500 mu gihe cy’ihungabana kigera kuri 27%.
Icyizere ni igikoresho cyoroshye kwangirika. Igwa ry’isoko ryimbitse rishobora gutera ubwoba abayobozi b’ibigo n’abaguzi. Gutakaza igice kinini cy’ubwizigame mu migabane no mu 401(k) ni ibintu bitazoroha kwirengagiza. Nibaramuka bahagaritse no gukoresha amafaranga, ubukungu bushobora kurushaho kugwa.
